{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "metric": "Equal-weight Kalshi\u2013Polymarket average of Yes bid/ask midpoints",
  "formula": "(((Kalshi Yes bid + ask) / 2) + ((Polymarket Yes bid + ask) / 2)) / 2 \u00d7 100",
  "rounding": "Calculate with unrounded inputs, then ROUND_HALF_UP to one decimal",
  "selection": "Union of each source\u2019s top six available midpoints, including exact cutoff ties",
  "order": "Descending unrounded average; alphabetical layout order for exact ties; unavailable last",
  "missing_policy": "Both two-sided quotes required. No zero substitution or single-source average.",
  "normalization": "Not normalized to total 100%; not weighted by volume",
  "scope": "2028 Republican presidential nomination, national contracts",
  "snapshot_label": "November 6, 2026 \u00b7 8:20 p.m. EST",
  "captures": {
    "kalshi": "2026-11-07T01:20:37.353452+00:00",
    "polymarket": "2026-11-07T01:20:37.546816+00:00"
  },
  "source_urls": {
    "kalshi": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner/kxpresnomr-28",
    "polymarket": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028"
  },
  "axis_percent": [
    0,
    50
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "person_id": "jd-vance",
      "name": "J.D. Vance",
      "average_percent_exact": "35.575",
      "display_percent": "35.6%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "33.50",
        "polymarket": "37.650"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV",
        "polymarket": "561974"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "marco-rubio",
      "name": "Marco Rubio",
      "average_percent_exact": "19.775",
      "display_percent": "19.8%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "20.50",
        "polymarket": "19.050"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-MR",
        "polymarket": "561975"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "ron-desantis",
      "name": "Ron DeSantis",
      "average_percent_exact": "15.825",
      "display_percent": "15.8%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "17.50",
        "polymarket": "14.150"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS",
        "polymarket": "561979"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "john-mcentee",
      "name": "John McEntee",
      "average_percent_exact": "5.625",
      "display_percent": "5.6%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "7.500",
        "polymarket": "3.750"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-JMCE",
        "polymarket": "562016"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "tucker-carlson",
      "name": "Tucker Carlson",
      "average_percent_exact": "3.600",
      "display_percent": "3.6%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "3.650",
        "polymarket": "3.550"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR",
        "polymarket": "561996"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "glenn-youngkin",
      "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
      "average_percent_exact": "2.925",
      "display_percent": "2.9%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "2.450",
        "polymarket": "3.400"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-GY",
        "polymarket": "561977"
      }
    },
    {
      "person_id": "thomas-massie",
      "name": "Thomas Massie",
      "average_percent_exact": "2.825",
      "display_percent": "2.8%",
      "status": "Both sources available",
      "source_midpoints_percent_exact": {
        "kalshi": "2.650",
        "polymarket": "3.000"
      },
      "source_market_ids": {
        "kalshi": "KXPRESNOMR-28-TMAS",
        "polymarket": "562005"
      }
    }
  ]
}