Stephen Schumacher
January 23, 2026
John James’ gubernatorial run makes MI-10 an open seat, with competitive primaries for both Republicans and Democrats.
MI-10 is Republican-held but open in 2026 because Rep. John James is running for governor. Cook rates MI-10 Lean R with a PVI of R+3. James won by 6.1% in 2024 with President Trump on the ticket and by a narrower 0.5% in the 2022 midterms. Democrats see the upcoming midterms as an opportunity to flip MI-10 and signaled their intention to invest significant resources in the race.
This is the Macomb County district (with a small portion in Oakland County) that inspired comprehensive scholarship on what have been referred to as “Reagan Democrats.” Trump won Macomb County by 68,000 votes–almost the full margin of his statewide victory by 80,000 votes.
The core of MI-10 is the Macomb corridor anchored by Warren and Sterling Heights, then extending through Clinton Township and Shelby Township, with additional population centers in St. Clair Shores, Roseville, Eastpointe, and Mount Clemens. A small extension reaches into Rochester and Rochester Hills, but the core math and the dominant media market are Macomb-first. The district has higher-than-average union membership who have been trending toward Republicans since President Trump’s 2016 election win. Support for candidates among union membership will be important to watch.
One barrier to entry for candidates is petition signatures. The dense population of the district slightly reduces the difficulty of obtaining the requisite number of signatures.
Republicans already have a crowded primary – including candidates Robert Lulgjuraj, Mike Bouchard, Steven Elliott, Casey Armitage, Justin Kirk, and Cody Ingram.
The list includes a former Macomb County Prosecutor (Robert Lulgjuraj), Mike Bouchard, a veteran and business owner (Steven Elliott), a gun-rights activist (Casey Armitage), a lawyer and policy professional (Justin Kirk), and an unknown Cody Ingram.
We will have a better understanding of the field after candidates file their year-end-reports (Due Jan 31), and the April filing deadline means more candidates can enter the race.
Candidates in the Democratic primary include: Tripp Adams, Eric Chung, Tim Greimel, Christina Hines, and Brian Steven Jaye.
Democrats have indicated they plan to invest significantly in MI-10 and view the seat as one of their best pickup opportunities. We will have much better analysis of where the candidates stand after the next campaign finance filings.
The race for MI-10 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the country. Expect both parties to invest significantly – and expect robust national media coverage. If you live in the district, expect a constant flow of political advertising all the way to the election.
