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    A crowd at Eastern Market in Detroit during JD Vance’s 2024 campaign visit.

    The road to 2028

    2028 Michigan
    Republican
    Presidential Primary

    Explore the field

    Detroit · Eastern Market
    JD Vance’s 2024 campaign visit · Archival footage

    Michigan’s Upper and Lower Peninsulas highlighted in gold among the Great Lakes.

    Michigan’s
    Republican
    presidential primary.

    Follow the 2028 presidential contest from Michigan.

    Michigan

    The Republican field

    2028 presidential watch list.

    Potential contenders for the 2028 Republican nomination and their public statements about running.

    Watch-list inclusion does not mean someone has entered the race. Dates and sources accompany each profile.

    Last reviewed

    14 names · Profiles & sources

    JD VanceProfile +

    The presidential watch list · Profile

    JD
    Vance

    Vice President of the United States

    The November 4 post.
    The 2028 decision.
    His appearances in Michigan.

    Reported prospect
    Read the profile
    Portrait of JD Vance
    Emily J. Higgins / The White House · 2026-03-25 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Vance’s November 4 post on the midterms

    Vance blamed the Iran war for Republican midterm losses in a November 4 post on X, according to AP. He also cited living costs and the U.S. relationship with Israel, and suggested focusing more immigration enforcement on employers while rejecting amnesty.

    Trump called the post “good” while continuing to defend the war.

    Associated Press via WVUE ·

    Read Vance’s post on X

    Vance’s 2028 decision

    Vance had said he would decide on a presidential run after the midterms, according to AP’s November 5 report.

    Associated Press ·

    Vance’s public-service background

    President Donald Trump chose J.D. Vance as his running mate in 2024. Vance now serves as vice president in Trump’s second administration. He served four years in the Marine Corps, including a tour in Iraq, before graduating from Ohio State University and Yale Law School. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022.

    The White House
    Donald Trump · The American Presidency Project ·

    Vance’s Michigan appearances

    Vance returned to Michigan repeatedly during the 2026 midterms, including Sterling Heights on August 31, Monroe and Flat Rock on October 15, and Howell on October 27. His earlier visit to Auburn Hills, on March 18, included economic remarks and questions from local reporters.

    WILX ·
    Roll Call / Factba.se ·
    Roll Call / Factba.se ·
    WDIV Local 4 ·
    The American Presidency Project / Lauren Fedor, Financial Times ·

    His Michigan appearances reach back before his selection as Trump’s running mate. He attended the People’s Convention in Detroit on June 16, 2024, then joined Trump at a Grand Rapids rally on July 20. That fall’s stops included Visioneering in Auburn Hills on October 2 and Eastern Market in Detroit on October 8.

    Gage Skidmore ·
    Michigan Advance ·
    Michigan Advance ·
    Michigan Advance ·

    Explore the dated Michigan record

    Michigan reporting & original footage

    Back to the watch list
    Tucker CarlsonCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Tucker Carlson
    Gage Skidmore · 2025-12-18 · CC BY-SA 4.0 . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Tucker Carlson

    Reported denial

    Carlson had no plans to run for president, Marjorie Taylor Greene said in August 2026, according to The Independent.

    The Independent ·

    Back to the watch list
    Donald Trump Jr.Coverage brief +
    Portrait of Donald Trump Jr.
    Gage Skidmore · 2025-12-21 · CC BY-SA 4.0 . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Survey inclusion

    Trump Jr. was one of the names tested in YouGov’s September 2025 survey of hypothetical Republican nominees.

    YouGov ·

    Back to the watch list
    Ron DeSantisCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Ron DeSantis
    Government of Florida · circa 2023 · Public domain (Florida government public record) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Ron DeSantis

    Reported prospect

    DeSantis featured among potential 2028 contenders in AP’s November 5 assessment of the Republican field after the midterms.

    Associated Press ·

    Back to the watch list
    Marco RubioCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Marco Rubio
    U.S. Department of State · 2025-01-23 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Marco Rubio

    Reports disputed

    Rubio’s office disputed reports that he was considering leaving the administration for a 2028 bid. Spokesman Dylan Johnson told EFE on November 5 that Rubio had not discussed leaving and would remain in the administration.

    EFE ·

    The response addressed reports of a departure; it did not rule out a future presidential run.

    Back to the watch list
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Coverage brief +
    Portrait of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    U.S. Department of Health and Human Services · 2025-02-21 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Dated denial

    Kennedy denied plans to run in 2028 in August 2025.

    The Guardian ·

    Back to the watch list
    Ted CruzCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Ted Cruz
    Rebecca Hammel / U.S. Senate Photographic Studio · 2019-01-31 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Ted Cruz

    Reported consideration

    Cruz was openly weighing another presidential run, according to AP’s November 5 report.

    Associated Press ·

    Back to the watch list
    Glenn YoungkinCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Glenn Youngkin
    Kate Magee Joyce for Glenn Youngkin · 2021-01-10 · CC BY-SA 2.0 . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Glenn Youngkin

    No plans stated in May

    Youngkin said he was not planning a 2028 presidential run during a May 2026 appearance at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference.

    Milken Institute ·

    Back to the watch list
    Vivek RamaswamyCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Vivek Ramaswamy
    Gage Skidmore · 2024-06-14 · CC BY-SA 2.0 . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Survey inclusion

    Ramaswamy was one of the names tested in YouGov’s September 2025 survey of hypothetical Republican nominees.

    YouGov ·

    Back to the watch list
    Rand PaulCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Rand Paul
    U.S. Senate Photography Office · 2025-06-04 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Rand Paul

    Considering in March

    Paul told CBS in March he was considering another presidential run.

    CBS News ·

    Back to the watch list
    Brian KempCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Brian Kemp
    Office of Governor of Georgia · 2024 · Public domain (Georgia government public record) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Brian Kemp

    Reported prospect

    Kemp was among the potential contenders discussed in an August 14 Washington Post analysis.

    The Washington Post ·

    Back to the watch list
    Nikki HaleyCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Nikki Haley
    U.S. Department of State · 2017-09-13 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Nikki Haley

    Dated denial

    Haley told CNN’s Dana Bash on April 12, 2026, that she would not enter the next presidential primary.

    CNN ·

    Back to the watch list
    John KennedyCoverage brief +
    Portrait of John Kennedy
    Daniel Rios / U.S. Senate Photographic Services · 2025-09-30 · Public domain (U.S. federal government) . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    John Kennedy

    Conditional interest

    John Kennedy told NBC’s Meet the Press on October 4 that he would consider a presidential run depending on who entered the race and whether he could still be effective in the Senate. He said his plan remained Senate reelection.

    NBC News, syndicated by AOL ·

    Back to the watch list
    Chris ChristieCoverage brief +
    Portrait of Chris Christie
    Gage Skidmore · 2023-10-28 · CC BY-SA 2.0 . Display crop.

    Coverage brief

    Chris Christie

    Reported consideration

    Christie was considering another presidential bid, according to AP’s November 5 report.

    Associated Press ·

    Back to the watch list

    How names enter this watch list

    We follow potential Republican contenders through public statements, interviews, reporting and polls. The portraits follow an editorial order, not a ranking of support or nomination odds.

    Each entry shows when its statement, report or survey appeared. Plans can change, and a place in a hypothetical poll does not mean someone intends to run.

    Also monitored · Tulsi Gabbard
    Gabbard was one of the names tested in YouGov’s September 2025 survey of hypothetical Republican nominees.

    YouGov ·

    Also monitored · Tim Scott
    Scott’s campaign said he planned to seek Senate reelection in 2028, confirming those plans to WIS in March 2026.

    WIS ·
    YouGov ·

    Portrait sources & credits

    Photo dates, credits and licenses appear below. Images are cropped to fit the screen; their original files are preserved. Their use does not imply endorsement.

    The Michigan Capitol dome against the sky in Lansing.
    Lansing · Michigan CapitolFile footage · Stephen Schumacher

    Michigan reporting

    Presidential
    campaigning.
    In Michigan.

    Vance’s Michigan
    appearances.

    Selected stops from the 2026 midterms, with a dated record reaching back to the 2024 campaign.

    1. Howell

      Vance rallied supporters in Howell.

      Vance rallied supporters one week before the midterm election.

      WILX

    2. Monroe & Flat Rock

      Vance’s rally and town hall in southeast Michigan.

      Vance campaigned for Mike Rogers in Monroe and recorded a CBS News town hall in Flat Rock. The town hall included questions from Michigan voters about data centers.

      Monroe rally · Transcript Flat Rock town hall · Transcript

    3. Sterling Heights

      Vance campaigned with James and Rogers.

      John James and Mike Rogers spoke before Vance at the Sterling Heights campaign event.

      WDIV Local 4

    4. Auburn Hills

      Vance’s economic remarks in Auburn Hills.

      At Engineering Design Services Inc., Vance discussed tax and trade policies and took questions from local reporters. Usha Vance accompanied him on the Michigan trip.

      Read the pool report
    Documented appearances, 2024–202623 records · Reviewed November 6, 2026

    Public campaign events, official visits and recorded town halls. Separate appearances on the same day are listed individually. This is an expanding record, not a complete itinerary.

    2026 Michigan appearances

    1. Howell

      Midterm rally

      WILX
    2. Monroe

      Midterm rally · LevelUp Training Complex

      Roll Call / Factba.se WILX
    3. Flat Rock

      CBS News town hall recording

      Roll Call / Factba.se
    4. Sterling Heights

      Midterm campaign event

      WDIV Local 4
    5. Auburn Hills

      Economic remarks and press questions · Engineering Design Services Inc.

      The American Presidency Project / Lauren Fedor, Financial Times

    2025 Michigan appearances

    1. Howell

      Factory tour and remarks · Hatch Stamping

      The American Presidency Project / Reese Gorman, NOTUS
    2. Bay City

      Manufacturing remarks · Vantage Plastics

      The American Presidency Project

    2024 Michigan appearances

    1. Flint

      Campaign rally

      WNEM
    2. Portage

      Campaign appearance

      Michigan Public
    3. Saginaw County

      Campaign rally · Center Courts

      Michigan Advance
    4. Holland

      Campaign rally

      Michigan Advance
    5. Waterford

      Campaign rally · Elite Jet at Contact Aviation

      Michigan Advance
    6. Metro Detroit

      NewsNation town hall

      NewsNation
    7. Detroit

      Campaign rally · Eastern Market

      Michigan Advance
    8. Auburn Hills

      Campaign remarks · Visioneering

      Michigan Advance
    9. Marne

      Campaign rally · Berlin Raceway and Entertainment Complex

      Election Central Michigan Advance
    10. Traverse City area

      Campaign rally · Northwestern Michigan Fair

      Election Central
    11. Sparta area

      Campaign rally · Apple Valley Events

      Michigan Public / WGVU
    12. Big Rapids

      Campaign rally · Majestic Friesians horse farm

      The Pioneer
    13. Byron Center

      Campaign rally · Cordes Inc.

      PolitiFact
    14. Shelby Township

      Campaign remarks · Shelby Township Police Department

      Michigan Advance
    15. Grand Rapids

      Rally with Donald Trump

      Michigan Advance
    16. Detroit

      Turning Point Action People’s Convention · Huntington Place

      Gage Skidmore
    Download the sourced visit record

    Eastern Market · 2024

    20-second silent edit joining two passages · Original footage by Stephen Schumacher / Michigan Republican Primary. Filmed during the 2024 campaign.

    Michigan Republican Primary

    Republican
    nomination odds.

    Our prediction
    market average.

    Snapshot · November 6, 2026
    8:20 p.m. EST

    Average of selected prediction market prices

    National nomination · Separate from polling

    Equal-weight average of Kalshi and Polymarket national Republican nomination Yes bid/ask midpoints. Captured November 6, 2026 at 8:20 p.m. EST. Ordered by the unrounded average.
    Name0%1020304050%Average
    J.D. Vance35.6%
    Marco Rubio19.8%
    Ron DeSantis15.8%
    John McEntee5.6%
    Tucker Carlson3.6%
    Glenn Youngkin2.9%
    Thomas Massie2.8%

    An equal-weight average of two prediction markets, updated manually. See methodology for the calculation and original prices.

    Methodology & sources

    MichiganRepublicanPrimary.com combines prices from Kalshi and Polymarket into one equal-weight average. Both news and market snapshots are updated manually.

    These contracts concern the national Republican nomination. A name appearing in a market does not confirm a presidential campaign.

    We take the midpoint between each market’s Yes bid and ask, average the two unrounded values equally, and round the result to one decimal place. The average is our calculation, not a price offered by either market. These are dated prices, not live quotes, polling results or a forecast of Michigan’s primary.

    We include anyone in the top six by midpoint on either market, including ties at sixth place. Each average requires valid bid and ask prices from both sources; otherwise it is unavailable. We do not weight by trading volume or adjust the figures to total 100%. Each market’s rules and original quotes appear below.

    Kalshi 50 outcomes · Full quotes & rules

    2028 Republican presidential nominee

    Captured

    Yes settles if the named person wins and accepts the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028.

    Source market & rules Source API
    Captured bid, ask and Yes midpoint on Kalshi
    NameBidAskMidpoint
    J.D. Vance33.0¢34.0¢33.5%
    Marco Rubio20.0¢21.0¢20.5%
    Ron DeSantis17.0¢18.0¢17.5%
    John McEntee7.1¢7.9¢7.5%
    Tucker Carlson3.6¢3.7¢3.7%
    Thomas Massie2.6¢2.7¢2.7%
    Brian Kemp2.5¢2.6¢2.6%
    Joe Kent2.5¢2.6¢2.6%
    Glenn Youngkin2.4¢2.5¢2.5%
    Ted Cruz2.2¢2.3¢2.3%
    Donald J. Trump1.4¢1.5¢1.5%
    Nikki Haley1.3¢1.4¢1.4%
    Marjorie Taylor Greene1.1¢1.2¢1.2%
    Donald J. Trump Jr.0.9¢1.0¢1.0%
    Ivanka Trump0.8¢0.9¢0.9%
    Josh Hawley0.8¢0.9¢0.9%
    Byron Donalds0.6¢0.8¢0.7%
    Rand Paul0.6¢0.7¢0.7%
    Sarah Huckabee Sanders0.5¢0.6¢0.6%
    Tom Cotton0.5¢0.6¢0.6%
    Katie Britt0.4¢0.5¢0.5%
    John Kennedy0.3¢0.4¢0.4%
    Pete Hegseth0.3¢0.4¢0.4%
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.3¢0.4¢0.4%
    Spencer Pratt0.2¢0.4¢0.3%
    Tulsi Gabbard0.2¢0.4¢0.3%
    Chris Christie0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Larry Hogan0.1¢0.4¢0.3%
    Steve Bannon0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Tim Scott0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Chris Sununu0.1¢0.3¢0.2%
    Mike Pence0.1¢0.3¢0.2%
    Candace Owens0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Doug Burgum0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Elise Stefanik0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Elon Musk0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Eric Trump0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Erika Kirk0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Greg Abbott0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Gregory Bovino0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Jeff Bezos0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    John Thune0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Kristi Noem0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Lara Trump0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Wesley Hunt0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Ben Shapiro0.0¢0.2¢0.1%
    Matt Gaetz0.0¢0.2¢0.1%
    Vivek Ramaswamy0.0¢0.2¢0.1%
    Jared Kushner0.0¢0.1¢0.1%
    Nicki Minaj0.0¢0.1¢0.1%
    Polymarket 43 outcomes · Full quotes & rules

    Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

    Captured

    Yes settles if the named person wins and accepts the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Polymarket says replacement of the nominee before election day does not change that resolution.

    Source market & rules Source API
    Captured bid, ask and Yes midpoint on Polymarket
    NameBidAskMidpoint
    J.D. Vance37.6¢37.7¢37.7%
    Marco Rubio19.0¢19.1¢19.1%
    Ron DeSantis14.1¢14.2¢14.2%
    John McEntee2.8¢4.7¢3.8%
    Tucker Carlson3.5¢3.6¢3.6%
    Glenn Youngkin3.3¢3.5¢3.4%
    Thomas Massie2.9¢3.1¢3.0%
    Ted Cruz2.6¢2.7¢2.7%
    Brian Kemp1.5¢1.9¢1.7%
    Donald Trump Jr.1.5¢1.6¢1.6%
    Joe Kent1.0¢1.1¢1.1%
    Byron Donalds0.8¢0.9¢0.9%
    Nikki Haley0.8¢0.9¢0.9%
    Ivanka Trump0.7¢0.8¢0.8%
    Donald Trump0.6¢0.7¢0.7%
    Josh Hawley0.5¢0.6¢0.6%
    Rand Paul0.5¢0.6¢0.6%
    Tom Cotton0.4¢0.7¢0.6%
    Marjorie Taylor Greene0.4¢0.5¢0.5%
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.3¢0.4¢0.4%
    Sarah Huckabee Sanders0.3¢0.4¢0.4%
    Katie Britt0.2¢0.4¢0.3%
    Candace Owens0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Elon Musk0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    John N. Kennedy0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Tim Scott0.2¢0.3¢0.3%
    Rick Scott0.1¢0.3¢0.2%
    Doug Burgum0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Elise Stefanik0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Eric Trump0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Greg Abbott0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Kim Kardashian0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Kristi Noem0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Mike Pence0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Pete Hegseth0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Steve Bannon0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Tom Brady0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Tulsi Gabbard0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Vivek Ramaswamy0.1¢0.2¢0.2%
    Erika Kirk—0.2¢Unavailable
    John Thune—0.1¢Unavailable
    Matt Gaetz—0.2¢Unavailable
    Mike Johnson—0.1¢Unavailable
    Download the calculated averages
    Download the underlying capture

    The record behind the coverage

    Sources & coverage notes.

    Each profile links to the reporting, interview or survey behind it. Dates distinguish recent developments from earlier statements. This watch list does not indicate who has qualified for Michigan’s ballot.

    Our opening film was recorded during JD Vance’s 2024 campaign visit to Eastern Market in Detroit. The silent, 20-second edit combines two excerpts.

    Film & globe credits

    Film: Stephen Schumacher / Michigan Republican Primary. Geography: Natural Earth. Earth relief: NASA Blue Marble. Clouds: Solar System Scope, CC BY 4.0. Geographic relief is exaggerated for clarity; the globe is an editorial visualization.

    Natural Earth · NASA Blue Marble · Cloud texture · CC BY 4.0

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